Despite signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2025, freight market recovery is being held back by tariff risks. This is evidenced by the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index. 

While prices for LTL and FTL transportation have shown an upturn, tariff policy raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery.

LTL carriers are effectively adapting to reduced demand, focusing on cost-effective destinations and reliable cargo, rather than increasing volumes by lowering prices, as noted by Aaron LaGanke.

Nevertheless, after rising at the beginning of the quarter, the business activity index again showed a decline in March, indicating continued difficulties in the market.

According to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index released on April 8, the U.S. focus on high tariffs could prolong the period of weak demand. Although prices for FTL and LTL transportation have increased slightly, the long-term effects of tariffs remain a major constraint on growth.

After a period of contraction lasting 26 months, the business activity index showed growth for two months at the beginning of the first quarter. 

However, the March figures point to a resumption of the recession, highlighting the challenging conditions in which the freight market operates amid economic uncertainty and changing trade policies.